Four Scenarios for Transatlantic Relations in Obama’s Second Term (with Emiliano Alessandri)..

LSE IDEAS Transatlantia Blog and Aspenia Online (2013)

As President Obama’s new foreign policy team is coming together, it is a good moment to assess – in light of past events and current trends – where the transatlantic relationship is headed in the years to come. The economic and political challenges facing Europe and the United States, the volatile democratization under way in the Middle East, the nuclearization of Iran, the rise of Asia and China, and the broader diffusion of power in an increasingly multipolar international system, are pushing and pulling the transatlantic relationship, and the West more generally, in four different directions: collapse, dilution, consolidation and expansion...